It Caught My Eye: Be Alert, It’s Moving
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By Bob Frakes, for the Sentinel
After speaking at the Jefferson County Historical Society on the December 18th, 1957 MV tornado, I received some comment and questions in regard to my assertion that the so called “tornado alley” was on the move.
TORNADO ALLEY – Tornado Alley, also known as Tornado Valley, is a loosely defined location of the central United States where tornadoes are most frequent. The term was first used in 1952 as the title of a research project to study severe weather in areas of Texas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Kansas, South Dakota, Iowa and Nebraska. Tornado climatologists distinguish peaks in activity in certain areas and storm chasers have long recognized the Great Plains tornado belt.
As a colloquial term, there are no definitively set boundaries of Tornado Alley. The area common to most definitions extends from Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin, and eastern portions of Colorado, New Mexico and Wyoming. Research suggests that the main alley may be shifting EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE GREAT PLAINS. Tornadoes are also becoming more frequent in the northern and eastern parts of Tornado Alley, reaching the Canadian Prairies, Ohio, Michigan, and Southern Ontario.
WHY THE SHIFT – 1)Climate Change: One of the primary reasons for the shift in Tornado Alley is climate change. Warmer air holds more moisture, which increases instability in the atmosphere. This change allows for more favorable conditions for tornado formation in the eastern United States, particularly in states like Alabama, Mississippi, and Tennessee. 2)Changing Weather Patterns: The behavior of the jet stream and other atmospheric conditions has evolved, altering where storms intensify and rotate. This has resulted in a notable increase in tornado activity in the Southeast, while traditional Tornado Alley states like Texas and Oklahoma are experiencing fewer tornado days (but may have more on those days). 3)Geographical Changes: The terrain and population density in the Southeast also contribute to the increased risk of tornadoes. Areas that were historically less familiar with tornadoes are now experiencing more frequent and intense storms, raising concerns about property damage and fatalities.
EFFECTS – Greater numbers? Yes, there are more tornados yearly in the United States. In 2025 there were 1,558 tornado reports which is an increase over previous a previous average of around 1,200. This indicates a growing frequency with Texas and Oklahoma still reporting the highest numbers and, not only more but a changing dispersal by month. Here are some key observations. There is a decline in tornados in the summer months. However, the number of tornado days per year has increased from 104 in 1954-1974 to 146 in 1996-2016. The Spring months have seen upward trends. Significantly, the Fall and Winter months have seen upward trends. And, they are growing stronger. The recent hyperactive tornado season in the United States has been attributed to a combination of factors, including wind shear and instability, driven by the jet stream and El Nino. These elements have created a favorable environment for tornados, leading to an increase in their strength and frequency. The study by the Center for Severe Weather Research indicates that many tornados are larger and stronger than previously reported, with the percentage of EF5 tornadoes being greater than previously thought. This suggests a significant increase in tornado activity, particularly in the traditional Tornado Alley region.
EF5/EF6? – Tornados are “scaled” from EF0 to EF5 on a basic scale developed by Ted Fujita of the University of Chicago years ago. That scale was later “enhanced” to reflect the “EF” scale in use today. EF0 tornados are generally below 100 mph (but can still be deadly) and an EF5 has winds in the 200 mph range. Although more powerful, these large tornados are also less likely to occur. Both Moore, Oklahoma and Joplin, Missouri were EF5s. By the way assessment is usually “post hoc” meaning teams survey damage and extrapolate from that. Meteorologists like to toy with the concept of EF6. In theory, if all aligned just right an “off scale” twister could form. The famous Tri-State Tornado may have been one. However, how to asses such a storm remains problematic. Since an EF5 is defined as “complete destruction” the issue would be how do you assess a destruction more than complete? Fortunately with advances in weather forecasting and warnings, the situation that happened with the Tri-State tornado would not happen today. You see all along the path from Ellington, Missouri to past Griffin, Indiana – no community had any idea what was coming or had occurred anywhere back down the line.
SPEAKING OF THE WEATHER – It was COLD on the 17th but that could not freeze out having some JOY – as in Joy Mfg. We again assembled (see picture) at the airport to tell tales, most of them mostly true. It was a special place to work, as these meetings show!
Question, Comments or Answers?
robert_frakes@Yahoo.com or news@morningsentnel.com